Home   >   CSC-OpenAccess Library   >    Manuscript Information
New Approach of Prediction of Sidoarjo Hot Mudflow Disastered Area Based on Probabilistic Cellular Automata
Kohei Arai, Achmad Basuki
Pages - 1 - 11     |    Revised - 31-01-2011     |    Published - 08-02-2011
Volume - 1   Issue - 1    |    Publication Date - January / February 2011  Table of Contents
Cellular Automata, Hot Mudflow, Probabilistic State Change, LUSI, Prediction, Minimization Difference
A new approach of prediction of Sidoarjo hot mudflow disastered area based on cellular automata with probabilistic adjustment for minimizing prediction errors is proposed. Sidoarjo hot mudflow has specific characteristics such as plane and complex area, huge mud plumes, high viscosity and surface temperature changes, so that it needs combined approaches of slow debris flow, and material changes caused by viscous fluid and thermal changes. Some deterministic approaches can not show the high state changes. This paper presents a new approach of cellular automata using probabilistic state changing to simulate hot mudflow spreading. The model was calibrated with the time series of topological maps. The experimental results show new inundated areas that are identified as high risk areas where are covered by mud. It is also show that the proposed probabilistic cellular automata approach works well for prediction of hot mudflow spreading areas much accurate than the existing conventional methods.
CITED BY (1)  
1 Arai, K., Basuki, A., & Harsono, T. (2012). Hot mudflow prediction area model and simulation based on Cellular Automata for LUSI mud plume at Sidoarjo in East Java. Journal of Computational Science, 3(3), 150-158.
1 Google Scholar 
2 CiteSeerX 
3 refSeek 
4 Scribd 
5 SlideShare 
6 PdfSR 
Achmad Basuki, Tri Harsono, and Kohei Arai, “Modeling and Simulation of Hot Mudflow Movement Prediction Using Cellular Automata”, AMS 2009, Third Asia International Conference on Modelling & Simulation, pp.176-181, 2009
Argentini. G (2003), “A first approach for a possible cellular automaton model of fluids dynamic, New Technologies & Models”, Information & Communication Technology Department Riello Group, Legnago (Verona), Italy, February 2003
Avolio MV, Di Gregorio S., Mantovani F., Pasuto A., Rongo R., Silvano S., and Spataro W., “Simulation of the 1992 Tessina Landslide by a Cellular Automata Model and Future Hazard Scenarios”, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Volume 2, Issue 1, pp.41-50, 2000
Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP), National University of Singapore, http://www.crisp.nus.edu.sg/coverages/mudflow/index_IK_p30.html
Chopard, B., Luthi, P. and Masselot, A., “Cellular Automata and Lattice Boltzmann Techniques : An Approach to Model and Simulate Complex Systems”, In Proceedings of Advances in Physics Conference, 1998
D’Ambrosio D., Di Gregorio S., Gabriele S. and Claudio R., “A Cellular Automata Model for Soil Erosion by Water”, Physic and Chemistry of The Earth, EGS, B 26 1 2001, pp.33-39, 2001
Indra Harsaputra, “Govt. weighs options for battling the sludge”, The Jakarta Post, May 29 2007; http://mudflow-sidoarjo.110mb.com, Comments and Prospects (retrieved 11.06.07)
Kohei Arai, Achmad Basuki, “A Cellular Automata Based Approach for Prediction of Hot Mudflow Disaster Area”, ICCSA 2010 Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2010, Volume 6017/2010, pp.87-98
Malamud, B.D., Turcotte, D.L., “Cellular-Automata models applied to natural hazards”, IEEE Computing in Science & Engineering, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 42-51, 2000
Pierre J.P. Pimienta, Edward J. Garboczi, W. Craig Carter, Cellular automaton algorithm for surface mass transport due to curvature gradients simulations of sintering, Computational Materials Science, Volume 1, Issue 1, October 1992, pp. 63-77
Richard J. Davies, “Birth of a mud volcano: East Java, 29 May 2006”, GSA Today: v. 17, no. 2, doi: 10.1130/GSAT01702A
Spataro W., D’Ambrosio D., Di Gregorio S., Rongo R., Avolio M.V., Giuseppe A. Trunfio (2007), “Evolutionary Computation And Modeling Of Natural Phenomena: An Application To Lava Flows”, In Proceedings of the 21st European Conference on Modeling and Simulation, ECMS, 2007
Subrata K Chakraborty, Jayanti Anggraini, “Massive Mudflow and Enviromental Damage Following Drilling Failure – An Example from Indonesia”, PETROTECH 2009, India, P09-532
Vicari A, Alexis H, Del Negro C, Coltelli M, Marsella M, and Proietti C, “Modeling of the 2001 Lava Flow at Etna Volcano by a Cellular Automata Approach”, Environmental Modelling & Software 22, pp.1465-1471, 2007
Yuan Lifeng, A Soil Erosion Model Based on Cellular Automata, The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Sciences, Vol. XXXVII Part B6b, pp.21-25
Professor Kohei Arai
Saga University - Japan
Mr. Achmad Basuki
Saga University - Japan